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“Fed Watch” is the macro podcast for Bitcoiners. In each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
comments were highlighted by a few narratives. These claims are simply what the Fed says they are doing:
- Their primary concern is fighting inflation.
- They will be adaptive to new data.
- A tight employment market threatens to exacerbate inflation.
- They cannot affect the supply side, so they will tamp down demand to bring down prices.
The main metric guiding the Fed’s course of rate hikes is CPI and “inflation” expectations. There are several ways to measure these, but the Fed uses consumer surveys. There is a critical distinction between surveys and market-derived expectations because surveys will not distinguish sources of price increases whereas the market-derived measures will.
Below is the Fed’s survey of inflation expectations. You can see that the median prediction is above 8%.
press conference. Here we get a flavor for the ECB’s formative narratives:
ECB faces a different challenge than the Fed. The ECB must raise rates for some of the more indebted countries, already with anti-European parties growing, and they are facing uneven effects, as we can see with credit spreads in Italy for example.
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please subscribe, review and share!
This is a guest post by Ansel Lindner. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.