Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Perpetual Swaps Reach 3-Month High; Can BTC Break $45,000?

The largest cryptocurrency has been quite volatile over the past two months amidst the geopolitical issue of the Russia-Ukraine war. The correction rally marked the current lower low at $33000 on January 24th. The buyer’s recovery attempts drive the coin price by 35%; however, the $45000 stands as a formidable barrier for them.

Technical indicators

  • The down-sloping crucial EMAs(20, 50, 100, and 200) along with a bearish sequence indicate bear dominance. Moreover, the sellers have recently reclaimed the 20-day EMA, which now provides strong resistance to the coin price.
  • The RSI indicator slope reverted from the 14-SMA in negative territory accentuates a bearish sentiment.

TradingView Chart

TradingView ChartSource- Tradingview

A recent bearish reversal from the $45000 mark knocked out two significant support levels of $41600 and $395621. The Bitcoin price tumbled by 19% from the swing high, bringing it to $36000 support.

On February 24th, the sellers tried to extend these losses, but the buyers wrested control from bears, resulting in a long-tail rejection candle closing above the $36000 mark. The following rally surged the BTC price by 8%, resetting the $40000 resistance.

However, the long-wick candle at this resistance indicates the sellers are defending this level, preventing a further rally. If bears sustain the below $40000 mark, the increasing selling momentum would plug the price to $36000 support along with the threat of a downtrend continuation.

  • Resistance level- $39640, $44650
  • Support level- $36372, $30000

BTC On-chain data analysis

  • The Global In/Out of the Money by intotheblock on-chain analytic platform indicates 61.95% of addresses are in profit. Conversely, 33.95% Out Of The Money holders are experiencing loss.
  • An At The Money cluster highlights a possible resistance at the $39276 mark, followed by a relatively larger cluster mean value at $42626 indicates the path to least resistance is downward.
  • However, intotheblock has recently tweeted that the trading volume for BTC perpetual swaps reached a 3-month high of over $134 billion on Feb 24th amid the Russian invasion in Ukraine.

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